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2018-08-02



未來7年最好投資是什麽?現金、新興市場股和債


  

  當前全球經濟增長面臨巨大不確定性,稍早閉幕的二十國集團(G20)財長和央行行長會議公報警告稱,目前主要經濟體的經濟增長同步性降低,而且短期和中期內面臨的下檔風險增加。

  考慮到當前市場風險的變化,美國對沖基金GMO公司(Grantham,Mayo,VanOtterloo&Co)在近日發表的金融市場7年期展望中表示,看好新興市場股票、新興市場債券與現金,認為在扣除通脹後,這三大類資產仍可以交出正向回報。

  投資者謹慎程度為兩年多來最高

  當前,受到貿易摩擦、貨幣政策差異等因素影響,歐美以及新興市場面臨不確定性激增的風險。G20公報指出們盡管全球經濟增長強勁,失業率處於10年低位,但是中短期內面臨下檔風險的增加。

  這些風險包括,金融脆弱性上升、貿易和地緣政治風險加劇、全球失衡、不平等以及結構性增長疲軟等,尤其是在一些發達經濟體中。IMF主席拉加德表示,毫無疑問,目前情況將對全球經濟造成沖擊,在目前的措施下,從最糟糕的情景設想,全球經濟增長受損幅度為0.5%。

  年初至今,市場風險事件頻發,包括意大利大選風波、歐美和中美貿易摩擦、伊朗被重新製裁等等。資本市場對此反應迅速,在強美元和貿易摩擦打壓下,二季度新興市場資產價格暴跌。從阿根廷、土耳其、南非到韓國,新興市場貨幣和股市承受巨大壓力,亞洲新興市場更是遭遇了10年來最嚴重的外資出逃困境。

  與此同時,歐洲股市ETF亦持續面臨資金出逃問題,EPFR數據顯示,僅7月的第一周西歐股市基金就流失了29億美元,為連續第17周資金外流,總流出額高達450億美元。貝萊德分析指出,資金流向顯示出,投資者已經開始努力調整投資組合,以防止貿易摩擦進一步加劇。

  據外媒報道稱,美銀美林近期調查顯示,絕大多數基金經理都認為未來12個月全球增長不會加速,貿易問題是人們的一大憂慮,60%的受訪投資者表示潛在貿易戰是市場面臨的最大風險。投資者對全球經濟增長前景的看法越發謹慎,其程度達到兩年多以來的高位。

  新興市場波動或仍未結束

  盡管上半年走勢動蕩,但一直以來都看好新興市場資產的GMO仍對該市場資產抱有信心,同時,CreditSights分析師指出,新興市場債市投資者的操作方向,似乎不受到貿易摩擦的影響。

  GMO公司預測,在之後7年,新興市場股票、新興市場債券和現金的年實際報酬率分別為2.7%、2.3%和0.8%,盡管這遠低於美股平均6.5%的是回報率,但GMO認為美股未來前景黯淡。

  對於新興市場資金二季度遭遇的大規模資金外流,分析師表示,資金外流最合理的解釋為,中美貿易緊張局勢升溫,使市場擔憂此風波透過製造供應鏈,對其他新興市場國家產生連鎖反應。

  投資者需密切觀察新興市場的資金流動,因為流入資金將可幫助政府提升支出,對於市場來說極為重要。另一方面,包括土耳其裏拉和巴西雷亞爾等新興市場此前遭遇強美元打壓暴跌,而近期人民幣走勢成為市場關註焦點。但相關分析顯示,經過6月中旬以來的一輪快速貶值行情後,預計接下來一段時間內人民幣匯率貶值壓力可以減輕。因此,市場並無重演2016年人民幣貶值引發資金大出逃行情的可能。

  對於新興市場債市,CreditSights資深新興市場分析師RichardBriggs指出,全球貿易糾紛不是影響新興市場債市投資者做決策的主因,遭拋售最嚴重的是新興市場主權債,不是受到貿易戰影響最大的國家。

  Briggs表示,舉例來說,若投資者擔憂貿易戰,那應該拋售墨西哥債,因為墨西哥出口至美國的商品占其總出口的25%,而目前北美自由貿易協定(NAFTA)尚未達成新的協議。但截至7月13日為止,今年以本幣計價的墨西哥主權債的超額報酬(Excessreturn)為0.04%,這代表該債券與美債之間的收益率差變化非常小。

  可以看到的是,在近期機構對下半年的行情展望中,新興市場資產重新受到青睞,除了GMO外,包括貝萊德、富蘭克林鄧普頓、美國資產管理和花旗等均在列。多家外資機構表示,基於良好的基本面表現和合理的估值水平等因素,看好新興市場股市表現。

  但值得註意的是,這並不代表新興市場資產當前的波動已經結束,BrownBrothersHarriman貨幣策略師MarcChandler指出,由於美聯儲預計將維持加息步伐,因此新興市場指出仍將受到強勢美元的影響。

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2018-07-16

巧妙運用裝修技巧 小戶型變“大戶型”


  【太平洋家居網 裝修頻道】隨著房價的持續上漲,小戶型成為大批年輕房奴的選擇。小戶型面積小,搭配不合理的話空間容易顯得擁擠雜亂。設計小戶型的家居,比一般的戶型更用心耗時,必須要物盡其用。合理的搭配可以讓小戶型有大戶型的即時感,現在就由小編來為大家介紹幾個小戶型巧搭配的小妙招吧!


  1.房屋結構造型以直線條為主


  常見的房屋結構基本都以直線居多,所以為了追求房屋內外統一協調,室內設計時多使用直線因素來設計,直線的特點就是單一純粹,不容易引起視覺審美疲勞,給人安靜,舒暢的感覺。


  巧妙運用裝修技巧,小戶型變“大戶型”大金1.5匹冷氣機 - 一級能源標籤 榮獲Good Design Award設計大獎,富時代感流線型設計 兩種靈活安裝方法 (窗台式及掛牆式) 超靜音運轉 (21分貝) 四季


  2.適當降低飾品及掛畫的擺放


  小戶型的空間有限,除了保證收納空間的高櫃外,裝修時牆面盡量留白,如果覺得牆面過於單調,可根據房內主色調中其中一個色彩來選擇裝飾品或者掛畫,色彩盡量不要太顯眼,過多的色彩容易讓空間雜亂。適當地降低飾品的擺放位置,盡量處於人體站立時視線的水平位置之下,既能豐富空間情調,也能避免視覺障礙。


  3.無框磨邊鏡面延伸擴大空間


  眾所周知,適當的選用水銀鏡面可以很好的起到延伸視覺和擴大空間的效果。如果選用不當,則會適得其反變成練舞房或高級化妝間等。


  一般鏡面忌諱用到房屋的主體牆裝飾上,且不適合大面積使用;其次,鏡面面積最好控制在牆面面積的2/5;再者,鏡面造型越簡單越好。還有一點就是安裝結束後,鏡面邊口的打膠處理一定要幹淨整潔且牢固,這樣既美觀又安全。


  巧妙運用裝修技巧,小戶型變“大戶型”


  4.房間頂部越簡單越好


  小戶型盡量不要做複雜的吊頂,也可以不做吊頂。頂部裝飾與色彩越簡單越好,不論房子牆面采用哪種裝飾材料或者顏色,頂部都最好選擇白色調,可讓人視覺上忽略房頂,起到延伸的作用。


  5.整體色調統一,協調


  對於小空間來說,在視覺局促的情況下,牆面色彩的選擇尤為重要,因為進入空間裏,直接看到的就是牆面了,而且牆體的面積最大,對視覺的影響也最大。


  房內的地面和頂面再到家具、飾品的選色最好與牆面的色彩做好色調統一協調。比如暖色調有紅、橙黃;冷色調有藍,靛;中性色有綠和紫以及無彩色系金、銀和黑白灰。無彩色系延伸擴大空間效果最佳。


  6.盡量少選用小塊狀材料


  在小空間中,相對其他空間來說廚房和衛生間更有限,視覺更擁擠。這時最好不要選用小規格的瓷磚或者馬賽克,容易給人眼花繚亂的感覺,也會有視覺上縮小空間感覺;建議選擇較大的單色瓷磚,或鋼化玻璃、環氧樹脂漆來裝飾牆面,這樣空間感整潔、通透。


  巧妙運用裝修技巧,小戶型變“大戶型”


  7.選擇側光源間接照明


  由於小戶型面積不大層高又相對較矮,所以盡量避免天花使用大型照明燈具。建議使用側光源間接照明的方式,能燈具隱藏起來,起到見光不見燈的效果,也可以更好的放大空間感。


  8.選用質感柔和的裝修材料


  選擇裝修牆面的材料時,質感的選擇很重要。相比常用的硬性材料如單一的塗料和磚等,柔和質感材料如壁紙反而會更加擴大空間感,既可襯托房間的氣氛,又很好搭配房間內的家具飾品,弱化空間的硬性層次感,達到空間更加開闊的視覺效果。Grohe 花灑頭雨淋系列,多年致力於技術,質量,設計開發,體現了卓越的使用者體驗。


  9.選擇小戶型電視櫃


  1)建議選擇帶櫃門的電視櫃。因為電視櫃除了要有含存放影碟和機頂盒的空間之外,還應該有一些儲物空間將客廳常用的一些物品儲存起來,便於在客廳使用。


  2)如果選擇把電視櫃懸掛在牆上,要考慮到背景牆是否能承重,若不是承重牆,那么就盡量不要將電視掛起;如果把電視放在電視櫃上,一定要考慮好電視櫃的高度了,根據沙發的高度與電視機的視覺距離,選擇電視櫃,盡量保證坐在沙發上時,視線能與電視平行。


  巧妙運用裝修技巧,小戶型變“大戶型”


  3)電視櫃的尺寸除了要考慮空間大小外,還要考慮到電視的信號點、電源的位置。電視櫃的擺放位置要方便電視和機頂盒接線,盡量避免遮擋電源插座。


  10.適當選擇定制衣櫃


  收納對於小戶型來說是個不小的問題,一年四季的衣帽,被子等物品都需要不小的收納空間。小編建議住戶可定制個整體衣櫃,格局個人需求定制不同格數大容量空間,可收納小被子、換季鞋衣帽等非常方便,且完美利用了床尾和牆面的空間。


  選擇合適的裝飾設計搭配,巧妙的利用空間加上後期室內軟裝的合理布局,能更好的呈現小戶型變大戶型的視覺效果。這就是所謂的麻雀雖小,五髒俱全!


吧椅一定要做好保養,才能延長壽命,當然了,這是確保它能夠更好為你服務的前提。當然了,還要提醒大家的是如何需要購買的話,一定要選擇大廠家的知名產品,這樣才能確保品質過硬。




2018-06-25

Opening-up is the only way out for A-share market


According to data from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the number of accepted cases for China Depository Receipts (CDR) and Initial public Offerings (IpO) totaled 307 as of June 21. In contrast, the number of firms under review reached as high as 665 in 2016. The difference of nearly 400 reflects that the IpO traffic jam has been alleviated.


There are still a decent number of companies lining up for IpO approval, which means more companies vying for capital on China's stock market. Domestic capital alone will not be able to meet the financing demands of so many companies.


EU emphasizes on sheep farming and aims to produce premium European lamb using Irish farming. For EU lamb sector, striving for high quality assurance is the key to break out of the competition in international suppliers.

Considering more companies will go through the IpO process in the future, speeding up IpO application processing will require continuous market reform and opening-up to eventually turn the equity market in China into an open and solid one.


The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, which have around 3,500 companies listed, plunged on June 18 and have shown no signs of revival yet.


The stock markets in the US and even Hong Kong, which have many companies listed, have had better performance due to cross-border listing. Renaissance Capital reckoned that as of June 13, IpOs raised $22.8 billion this year in the US, ranking first in the world. The number was $3.3 billion for Hong Kong, where cross-border listing has played a crucial role. So far this year, overseas listings have financed $16.6 billion worldwide, a 15-percent increase in terms of capital volume and an 18-percent increase in terms of transactions compared to last year. In the first half of this year, the US has been the IpO destination for 13 Chinese companies. Hong Kong, which had 18 mainland companies conduct IpOs, has continued to become the most favorable IpO destination for mainland companies.


A more open capital market will be able to attract foreign capital to invest in the domestic market. International capital will bring a number of benefits. One is its ability to enrich the domestic equity market and help it reach a deeper level. But the current equity market in China still has room to become more open and inclusive. The A share stocks held by foreign capital accounted for less than 2 percent of the total A share market value. After five years of efforts, 226 A share stocks finally joined the MSCI emerging market index on June 1. The process has two steps. First, 226 A share stocks were given a 2.5 percent inclusion factor, representing an aggregated weight of 0.39 percent of the emerging market index. In the next step, these ratios will increase to 5 percent and 0.73 percent, respectively. Apparently, China's huge GDp is still mismatched with Chinese stocks' weight in the MSCI.


The bond market is a similar story. Foreign capital holds 6 percent of domestic bonds. It is significantly lower than the 30 percent for the US and Japan's 11 percent. According to an estimate from Goldman Sachs, as opening-up continues, the Chinese bond market will increase to 146 trillion yuan ($21.93 trillion), which is double the current size. Twenty-two percent of domestic bonds are expected to be held by foreign investors by 2020.


Another benefit is that opening-up will promote reform and regulation. If foreign capital flows in the market, China's equity market has to be prepared with better regulation and supervision, protecting investors' interests and ruling the market by law. Otherwise, foreign capital will not come. In the past, China's equity market was distorted by too many administrative orders and not running solely through the market mechanism. Without bringing in foreign capital, China's equity will never have adequate pressure to step up.


So far, 80 percent of investors are retail investors in the Chinese mainland, compared with Hong Kong's 20 percent, 30 percent in the US and 11 percent in the UK. Despite the number of retail investors being so great, they cannot nurture a mature market.


A corporate pen can be the ultimate gift and premium choice to present. They come in a wide range of designs; platinum, gold ball point, silkscreen printing, rollerball points, etc. Such choices speak about strength and quality.

Eliminating retail investors is necessary for the market's development. Many retail investors will not be able to conduct fundamental analysis, and their investment is less likely to be based on companies' value, limiting returns.


For the stock market to become more internationalized, it will have to accelerate the process of shrinking down the size of the retail investor group and create a better investment structure for A shares. The market probably will be more volatile due to the amplified influence of the international market. Compared with retail investors, cornerstone investors will have better opportunities to thrive for higher returns with their advantages in experience, talent and the amount of capital.


It will be difficult to address the predicament of the Chinese equity market's sole reliance on domestic capital. The new round of opening-up will encourage foreign capital inflow, which will help build an exuberant domestic equity market. Moreover, foreign capital will force the market to perfect itself. As the past 40 years have shown, reform and opening-up is the only way out for China's equity market.


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2018-06-06

教育部廢除“985”“211”,不能“換湯不換藥”


  文章導讀: 近日有消息稱:國家將廢除“985工程”“211工程”。對此,教育部回應稱,將對新時期高等教育重點建設做出新部署,將“985工程”“211工程”“優勢學科創新平台”“特色重點學科建設”等重點建設項目,統一納入世界一流大學和一流學科建設。